New Seat Details - Stockport East and Denton

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Stockport East and Denton been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Party	Implied 2017 Votes	Implied 2017 Share
LAB	29,378	58.8%
CON	14,352	28.7%
LIB	3,769	7.5%
UKIP	1,669	3.3%
Green	623	1.2%
OTH	151	0.3%
LAB Majority	15,026	30.1%

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

Stockport East and Denton: Map

List of old seats forming part of Stockport East and Denton

Old seat: Denton and Reddish

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Denton and Reddish, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Denton and Reddish				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Stockport	Reddish North	10,018	Stockport East and Denton	1,738	4,308	209	311	84	0	0	16	6,666
Stockport	Reddish South	9,919	Stockport East and Denton	1,713	3,881	272	282	86	0	0	17	6,251
Tameside	Audenshaw	9,165	Oldham South and Droylsden	1,337	3,400	72	261	62	0	0	40	5,172
Tameside	Denton North East	8,325	Stockport East and Denton	1,460	3,274	77	252	64	0	0	19	5,146
Tameside	Denton South	8,156	Stockport East and Denton	1,353	3,325	53	270	55	0	0	58	5,114
Tameside	Denton West	9,239	Stockport East and Denton	1,875	3,225	94	146	61	0	0	41	5,442
Tameside	Dukinfield	9,046	Ashton-under-Lyne and Stalybridge	1,608	3,747	77	278	72	0	0	25	5,807
	Total	63,868		11,084	25,160	854	1,800	484	0	0	216	39,598

The full details of these calculations are given on the Denton and Reddish seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Hazel Grove

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Hazel Grove, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Hazel Grove				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Stockport	Bredbury and Woodley	10,358	Marple and Hyde	3,106	1,766	2,738	0	87	0	0	0	7,697
Stockport	Bredbury Green and Romiley	10,615	Marple and Hyde	3,398	1,862	2,474	0	93	0	0	0	7,827
Stockport	Hazel Grove	10,488	Bramhall and Wilmslow	3,847	1,488	2,459	0	91	0	0	0	7,885
Stockport	Marple North	9,622	Marple and Hyde	3,442	943	2,268	0	84	0	0	0	6,737
Stockport	Marple South	9,619	Marple and Hyde	3,280	1,068	2,107	0	81	0	0	0	6,536
Stockport	Offerton	10,016	Stockport East and Denton	2,975	1,908	2,488	0	80	0	0	0	7,451
	Total	60,718		20,048	9,035	14,534	0	516	0	0	0	44,133

The full details of these calculations are given on the Hazel Grove seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Stockport

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Stockport, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Stockport				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Stockport	Brinnington and Central	9,611	Stockport East and Denton	1,344	5,334	203	198	97	0	0	0	7,176
Stockport	Davenport and Cale Green	10,249	Bramhall and Wilmslow	2,003	4,635	361	197	103	0	0	0	7,299
Stockport	Edgeley and Cheadle Heath	10,005	Stockport West and Cheadle	1,723	4,635	312	183	95	0	0	0	6,948
Stockport	Heatons North	10,269	Stockport West and Cheadle	2,534	3,623	241	150	94	0	0	0	6,642
Stockport	Heatons South	10,551	Stockport West and Cheadle	2,307	3,932	288	149	105	0	0	0	6,781
Stockport	Manor	9,979	Stockport East and Denton	1,894	4,123	373	210	96	0	0	0	6,696
	Total	60,664		11,805	26,282	1,778	1,087	590	0	0	0	41,542

The full details of these calculations are given on the Stockport seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Stockport East and Denton

District	Ward	Electorate 2017	Old Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
New seat: Stockport East and Denton
Stockport	Brinnington and Central	10,955	Stockport	1,344	5,334	203	198	97	0	0	0	7,176
Stockport	Manor	10,224	Stockport	1,894	4,123	373	210	96	0	0	0	6,696
Stockport	Offerton	10,583	Hazel Grove	2,975	1,908	2,488	0	80	0	0	0	7,451
Stockport	Reddish North	11,070	Denton and Reddish	1,738	4,308	209	311	84	0	0	16	6,666
Stockport	Reddish South	10,378	Denton and Reddish	1,713	3,881	272	282	86	0	0	17	6,251
Tameside	Denton North East	8,545	Denton and Reddish	1,460	3,274	77	252	64	0	0	19	5,146
Tameside	Denton South	8,491	Denton and Reddish	1,353	3,325	53	270	55	0	0	58	5,114
Tameside	Denton West	9,036	Denton and Reddish	1,875	3,225	94	146	61	0	0	41	5,442
	Total	79,282		14,352	29,378	3,769	1,669	623	0	0	151	49,942

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Stockport East and Denton. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.

Implied MP at 2017:	Andrew Gwynne (LAB)
County/Area:	Eastern Manchester (North West)
Electorate:	79,282
Turnout:	63.0%

Stockport East and Denton: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Stockport East and Denton: Overview

Introduction